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UK fibre deep-dive

10 Dec 2024

Key takeaways

  • Altnets are pivoting their strategies to focus more on securing customer take-up to demonstrate a clear trajectory to profitability and self-funding
  • There is a growing divergence in commercialisation performance amongst altnets, driven by numerous factors including network roll-out strategy, and go-to-market strategy
  • First wave of consolidation triggered by underperforming, distressed altnets, with depressed valuations pricing network asset value or capital invested only
  • Value-accretive consolidation being considered by investors to better position investments for an eventual exit; sticking points appear to be agreeing valuation principles that define ‘relative valuations’ and exit horizon alignment across multiple and varied institutional investors within a single altnet
  • Investors should be open to consolidation opportunities but remain focused on operational execution to provide optionality and ensure optimal positioning over the long-term in a consolidating market

How network commercialisation performance is shaping market consolidation?

Significant progress has been made in rolling out full-fibre across the UK. As of January 2024, full-fibre coverage extended to 61% of UK premises, sharply up from 20% only three years prior1. Independent network operators (‘altnets’) are reported to account for almost half of this full-fibre coverage2

As covered in our previous fibre paper (“Fibre: The Fourth Utility”), many altnets initially centred their strategies around network deployment, assuming that customer take-up – the ultimate revenue generator – would naturally follow. A challenging macro backdrop and investment climate however has necessitated a pivot in strategies to focus more on securing customer take-up, demonstrating a clear trajectory to profitability and self-funding. In many instances, altnets have significantly slowed down, or even halted, their network roll-outs to fully prioritise the commercialisation of their existing networks.

  • We are starting to see the emergence of real winners in a very fragmented altnet market. Community Fibre is a good example with real network scale in London; 300K customers; wholesale contracts; a superior service reputation and EBITDA positive. Many alt nets have a network; few have a large network; very few have a network with solid take up rates

    author-image

    Olaf Swantee

    Executive Chairman

    - Community Fibre

While some altnets are showing strong commercialisation performance, others appear to be struggling, and we are increasingly seeing a divergence in performance between altnets of all size across the UK. In this paper, we consider a selection of factors, particularly through the lens of an investor in this space, that appear to be impacting altnets’ ability to grow their fair share of customers, alongside its resulting impact on the shape and pace of market consolidation.

  1. Ofcom Connected Nations Spring 2024

  2. thinkbroadband report (https://shorturl.at/bpxD2)

 

Market tailwinds supporting growth

With an increased focus on securing customer take-up, altnets should be well-positioned to disrupt the fixed broadband markets they operate in and capture their fair share. 

At the infrastructure level, the growing demand for data continues to increase the need for reliable gigabit-capable full-fibre technology. In recent years, the performance gap between full-fibre and legacy technologies (e.g. xDSL, cable) has been less noticeable for most consumers – for example, in many homes a 65Mbps Fibre-to-the-Cabinet (“FTTC”) service has been sufficient to use streaming services or work remotely. With the advent of new digital services and technologies, and as more devices become connected to the internet, the performance of full-fibre broadband will increasingly differentiate itself from these legacy technologies. In addition, new industry guidance issued by Ofcom requesting broadband providers clarify the underlying technology that underpins their service, thereby removing the ambiguous use of ‘fibre’ to sell full-fibre, FTTC or cable services, should help improve consumer understanding on different network technologies and further support full-fibre adoption.

Trustpilot ratings of selected national broadband providers vs. NDIF portfolio altnets.
The four largest broadband providers in the UK have >80% market share, but are poorly perceived amongst customers.
Source: Trustpilot (July 2024)

Dig SVG

While full fibre technology offers a step-up in performance for consumers, their overall experience continues to be significantly affected by the experience they receive from their actual broadband provider. Consumers appear increasingly dissatisfied by the poor customer experience and deals on offer by the incumbent national broadband providers, who collectively occupy >80% market share. At a time when many households have been under financial pressure, inflation-busting mid-contract price rises by the incumbent national broadband providers has generated considerable negative media coverage and left many customers dissatisfied with their fibre service provider. This has even resulted in Ofcom launching its own investigation into this practice to provide better protections for customers3

Altnets are also expected to be net beneficiaries of the much-delayed one-touch switching, which launched on 12 September 2024. One-touch switch is a regulation brought in by Ofcom that means that customers only need to contact their new provider when they switch, rather than needing to notify their existing one, thereby removing the hassle of dealing with customer retention teams trying to persuade them to stay on and / or frustrate their exit. 

Coupled with notoriously poor customer service, the market should be ripe for altnets to win customers from these incumbent providers. 

3 https://www.ofcom.org.uk/news-centre/2023/review-of-inflation-linked-telecoms-price-rises

Factors affecting customer take-up amongst altnets

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As noted, during the first phase of altnet growth in the UK, investors principally valued network growth. Many altnets therefore centred their strategies around network deployment, prioritising maximising Total Homes Passed (“THP”) growth at the expense of a balanced and fully considered roll-out strategy, and / or go-to-market strategy, with the consequences of this approach now being felt. While some of these consequences are more entwined within the fabric of these businesses, and will likely act as a future growth inhibitor, others can be overcome through investment in people, processes, and systems.

Amber Recommendation 

  • There remains no universal definition of a THP, meaning this can vary significantly between altnets. Ready for Service (“RFS”) is now our preferred KPI for measuring the size of a fibre network. It is always useful to request the definitions of THP and RFS used by a fibre altnet when evaluating it!

 

Network Roll-out Strategy

Not all networks have been rolled out equally. So how do we evaluate an altnet’s network roll-out strategy and how does this play into today’s commercialisation challenge?

One of the consequences of the early race for THP growth was, for some altnets, a higher tolerance for competitive network overbuild (i.e. altnet on altnet overbuild). With Openreach’s ambition to cover 25m homes and businesses with full-fibre by 2026 and 30m by the end of the decade, altnets fully expect to be overbuilt by Openreach (with the exception of ultra-rural, subsidised areas) and account for this within their Business Plan take-up assumptions (i.e. through a lower terminal penetration). It is widely accepted that altnets can become highly profitable businesses irrespective of overbuild by Openreach. Interestingly, recent in-house research by Community Fibre has provided a first counter view to the long-held narrative that altnet take-up is negatively impacted by Openreach full-fibre overbuild, finding that in areas where its network had been overbuilt by Openreach customer take-up has in fact accelerated. It is understood that this is due to the indirect benefit of other ISPs full-fibre marketing campaigns driving awareness of the benefits of the technology, and subsequently winning these informed customers with its highly competitive retail offering. 

Picture4 (1)

However, across the UK we are seeing areas where altnets have overbuilt one another. For example, it was reported last year that in Braintree there are now five full-fibre networks overbuilding each other4! Not only does this have consequences in a consolidating market, it also inevitably acts as a blocker for each altnet to secure meaningful take-up in these areas. Altnets succeed when they act as market disrupters competing against incumbent national broadband providers with their differentiated offering. While a 25-35% long-term retail penetration is considered achievable when competing only against the incumbent providers, where two altnets are also competing against each other, these take-up levels become extremely challenging, if not impossible, to achieve. Fortunately, there remains ample greenfield areas for altnets to target and we are observing the level of new overbuild amongst altnets reducing. However, historic overbuilt deployments will continue to put pressure on altnets seeking to improve customer take-up and will remain a structural issue over the medium- to long-term. 

Beyond the overbuild consideration covered above, altnets’ roll-out strategies can also vary substantially in terms of adopting a regional vs. national focus, a “whole-town” vs. “partial town” approach, level of own build vs. Openreach duct & pole usage, and importantly also the geotype (e.g. rural, semi-urban, urban). While these strategies have their own merits, each also has an implication for the altnet’s ease of commercialisation and go-to-market approach. As an example, while a whole-town approach to build (i.e. rolling out full-fibre to the majority of homes in an area) may have implications on overall roll-out costs, it should enable a more efficient go-to-market approach through more effective use of door-to-door sales representatives, customer referrals, and digital marketing. This in turn should translate into a lower customer acquisition cost (“CPA”). Additionally, it reduces the risk of confusion and frustration from residents on who can and cannot access the altnet’s service (e.g. if an altnet creates a disjointed “patchwork” of serviceable premises on a housing estate). We are seeing more instances of altnets now growing their network through densification of existing areas, rather than expanding to new areas, in part with this consideration in mind.

4 https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.php/2023/11/braintree-first-uk-town-with-5-full-fibre-networks-overbuilding.html

Customer Onboarding Journey

As new entrants into the market, altnets have little track record for potential customers to base their decision-making process on. Market research shows that for a sizeable share of customers, reliability of service is a key motivator for staying with their existing supplier (or switching to an incumbent provider) rather than switching to an altnet (i.e. “better the devil you know”). Here, customer satisfaction sites like Trustpilot can play a key sales and marketing role, acting as a badge of reliability for an altnet that helps differentiate them from the national incumbents and positively influence customers’ purchasing decisions. Altnets should all be focused on actively managing their Trustpilot scores to drive up and maintain an ‘Excellent’ rating.

Since the process to connect a full-fibre service is more involved compared to traditional switching between services on Openreach’s legacy network, managing the customer experience throughout this process is critical. In the normal course, the majority of positive and negative Trustpilot reviews are also submitted during this onboarding process. Here, several factors come into play that affect the customer onboarding experience, from the systems used for appointment booking, to the installation comms. shared with the customer, through to the build quality itself affecting the installation success rate. We observe a clear link between the level of investment in this key customer touchpoint and an altnet’s Trustpilot score, and by extension their commercialisation success. It is our view that altnets should be over-indexing on the investment and activities required to ensure a positive customer onboarding experience today, even if this introduces near-term inefficiency and incremental costs. 

It is worth noting that, while we have focused on the customer onboarding journey here, the logic applies equally to any subsequent customer touchpoints during the customer lifetime, such as if they experience any service issues, billing, renewals, etc. Altnets who do this well will be in a strong position to grow their share of customers.

Go-To-Market Strategy – Wholesale strategy

Altnets are faced with two strategic options to drive customer take-up on their networks – compete in the retail market and/or via a network wholesale strategy.  

For those following a wholesale strategy, to secure meaningful take-up they will typically need to secure at least one of the national broadband providers (as noted previously, the four largest providers have >80% market share). While a small number of altnets have successfully onboarded national ISPs – CityFibre is a good example of a wholesale-focused altnet that has secured Sky, TalkTalk and Vodafone as partners – this has proved extremely challenging for others. This is principally due to the national ISPs preferring to partner with altnets that have at least 1m THP due to the cost challenges and technical development efforts required for network integrations to wholesale networks.

These smaller altnets have instead sought to rely on regional ISPs to secure their take-up, however anecdotal evidence suggests that these altnets have struggled to achieve decent customer volumes from these partners. As a consequence, in some instances we have observed altnets pivoting their GTM strategy to develop their own retail brand (e.g. F&W and Hey! Broadband retail brand) in an effort to secure customer take-up on their under-penetrated networks.

Again, these observations and market dynamics support the misnomer of “build / offer it and the customers will come”. Instead, a highly dedicated and specialised sales capability is required to build brand and customer awareness / intimacy which ultimately drives customer service uptake and the penetration of a network. 

Go-To-Market Strategy – Retail strategy

Indeed, the initial “build it and they will come” mindset held by some investors has long since been shattered. In reality, even with supportive market tailwinds, establishing a clear brand, differentiated proposition, and efficient sales & marketing engine requires a significant amount of time and financial investment.

Appreciating that this represents an oversimplification, we broadly consider an altnet’s GTM strategy as “what am I offering?” and “how am I selling it?”. 

Focusing first on the “what am I offering?”, altnets need to develop a clearly defined point of differentiation from the incumbent national broadband providers (from whom they are principally winning customers). This differentiation can come in different forms, such as the service offering, product pricing, brand positioning (e.g. local/regional champion), etc. We observe those altnets that are struggling to commercialise their networks as those that are yet to fully carve out their “point of differentiation”.

Secondly, when it comes to “how am I selling”, it’s important to be transparent that altnets cannot outspend the incumbent national broadband providers to generate sales. 
Here, altnets need to be clever in their approach to sales, leveraging their lean organisations and access to data-driven insights to quickly adapt and iterate their GTM approach to ‘learn fast’ and drive continuous improvements in take-up and CPA. Altnets can be more experimental, fail fast, learn fast and try new approaches. Ensuring access to performance data and overlaying demographic data and feedback from in-person sales personnel to constantly refine the go-to-market approach is crucial. For many altnets, to access this level of insight they will need to address the historic under-investments in their people, processes and systems. These investments can be costly and time-consuming to develop and typically require in-house expertise. As such, for those that are particularly funding constrained, this may prove challenging to implement and will be a limiter of growth.

Additionally, given recent media coverage on challenges for altnets erecting new poles, it is worth highlighting the role of pre-build engagement with residents and the local community. This should make use of community events, door knocking, and digital media to positively engage local residents and secure buy-in for the build (particularly if new poles are required, which can be deemed as an ‘eyesore’ within communities). This also serves as a key moment to drive registrations of interest (“ROI”). It goes without saying, but from the point where a local community raises complaints to the media or their local MP, it is a steep uphill battle to then win them over as customers! 

What's next for UK altnets: the consolidation agenda

  • We’re starting to see winners and losers emerging amongst the large pool of altnets in the UK. Those altnets that have successfully achieved a balance of cost-effective build, strong customer take-up, and excellent customer service appear best positioned to succeed in an unpredictable consolidating landscape

    author-image

    David Blakey

    Asset Management Director

While market consolidation is inevitable, there remains significant uncertainty regarding the shape and pace of this consolidation. Consolidation is however firmly on investors’ agendas and many discussions are underway.

To date, consolidation (outside of investor-driven portfolio consolidation) has largely consisted of opportunistic acquisitions of network assets (e.g. Upp, Lit Fibre, Broadway Partners). Given the nature of these transactions, valuations appear to have been depressed and sized based at, or around, capital invested. As the divergence in performance grows, and funding runways for those that have failed to reach profitability run out (particularly given increased selectivity amongst lenders), further asset-focused consolidation is expected. We anticipate this type of activity to be led by CityFibre and nexfibre through a combination of paper and cash deals, although other altnets may also participate. 

For the remaining altnets (i.e. those on a path to profitability and fully funded to achieve this), there appear fewer near-term opportunities for investors to secure a cash exit matching any underwritten platform premium, being limited to those with a strong, differentiated position. Consolidation is therefore being considered by some investors as an interim solution to attract additional funding and/or better position investments for an eventual exit (e.g. by realising operating synergies and scale benefits). This type of value-accretive consolidation however has so far been limited, with the exception of Netomnia’s recent strategic merger with Brsk. While many discussions are underway, the major sticking points appear to be: (i) agreeing the valuation principles that define the ‘relative value’ of each company, and (ii) exit horizon alignment for, in some cases, multiple and varied institutional investors within a single altnet. For example, should value be given only to the existing network and customer base, or include future funded network build and customer growth? Should all customers be valued equally or does current ARPU (or future ARPU potential) need to be taken into consideration? Will private equity investors compromise on their anticipated exit horizons when invested alongside infrastructure and open-ended fund investors? These negotiations are complex and slow as these types of questions are addressed, requiring sensible investor discussions and accommodations on both sides to generate a win-win outcome. We expect discussions amongst investors to continue and an up-tick in consolidation activity over the coming 12-24 months.

For smaller altnets with less than 200k homes passed, as consolidation advances, there is a risk of being left behind and/or being less attractive to consolidation platforms. For these players, combinations with similar-sized altnets is, in our assessment, a practical and necessary step to improve the path to exit for their investors. For mid-sized altnets with between 200k to 500k homes passed, while the underlying benefits of consolidation remain, the risk of being left behind is somewhat lower. Here, investors should remain open to exploring opportunities but not be spooked or forced into any near-term M&A, instead maintaining focus on operational execution and reaching profitability. Ultimately, achieving these operational milestones will provide optionality for investors and ensure they are well-positioned in a consolidating landscape over the long-term.  

Disclaimer
This document and the information contained herein is the proprietary information of Amber Infrastructure Limited (“Amber”). It may not be distributed, published, reproduced (in whole or in part) by any medium or in any form, or disclosed or made available by recipients, to any other person or used for any other purpose, without prior written permission from Amber. The information contained in this document is provided for general information only and should not be construed as a solicitation, offer, invitation, inducement or recommendation. The National Digital Infrastructure Fund (“NDIF”) is referenced within for illustrative purposes only and is not a personal recommendation to invest in, buy or sell any fund, security or investment company nor to adopt any particular investment strategy. Investments named are not recommendations, but are illustrative only to demonstrate the capabilities, skills and experience of Amber and its affiliates. Any views and opinions expressed are those of Amber. Information, statistics, and data within this communication is subject to change and should not be acted or relied upon by any person without obtaining specific and relevant legal, tax, securities or investment advice.

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